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What's really going on in December?

Tim's picture

Tony Romo's win-loss record, TD-INT ratio, and passer rating for the month of December have been well-documented elsewhere - actually, almost everywhere. Obviously, those numbers need to improve, but Mickey Spagnola of DallasCowboys.com points out another interesting December stat. From 2006-2008, Romo was sacked 65 times. More than half of them, 33 in total, were in December games.*
 
Lazy analysts like to say things like "you can beat Tony Romo if you pressure him. He just won't be as effective." Not that this is wrong, necessarily, but it is also true of every other quarterback. The trick isn't figuring out which quarterbacks won't throw the ball effectively while running for their lives or laying on their backs - the trick is getting to them.
 
The Cowboys have shown opposing defensive coordinators that they can get to Romo. During his career, in games in which he's been sacked three or more times, Romo is 8-8. A .500 record is not terrible, but compared to his 27-7 record in games with two or fewer sacks, that's a pretty big difference, and for a team that needs a win, 50/50 looks like pretty good odds against Romo's Cowboys. It's no wonder, really, that eight of those high-sack games occurred in December, and I suspect that if I had hit and hurry stats available to me, the picture would look even worse.
 
For comparison's sake, in games where Eli Manning has been sacked three or more times since 2006, he is 3-6, so for this week's game, you know putting Manning on his back is part of the Dallas defensive plan. It works both ways.
 
Now, none of this is meant to absolve Romo of fault for past Decembers. As I said above, it's no secret that you have a better chance of winning when you can get after the quarterback. The trick is doing that. I wanted to put together Peyton Manning's numbers in games where he's been sacked three or more times for a comparison, but the thing is, that almost never happens, and that has as much to do with Peyton Manning as with his offensive lines.
 
There is no doubt that the Cowboys' protection schemes, blitz pick-ups and play-calling all need to be better, but sometimes the quarterback is the one who needs to figure out how to avoid pressure and make plays. We know Romo can do this. Now would be a good time.
 
* My December total includes the "Virtual December" game against the Packers in 2007. Because it was the Thursday night game, it actually occurred in November, but that was the first December game for every other team in the league.